2023 Oscar Predictions

Annual predictions from a guy who only guesses correctly about 75% of the time.

March 12, 2023

Below you’ll find my predictions for tonight’s 95th Academy Awards. A few notes:

  • Where I haven’t noted “should win” it’s because I haven’t see enough of the nominees to register an opinion.

  • The toughest categories of the night are going to be Best Actor and Best Supporting Actress. A lot of prognosticators are tilting towards Austin Butler for Elvis, but it’s unusual for Hollywood to award a young actor a lead award on their first nomination. If he wins, it feels like it will be the Academy’s way of also honoring Elvis Presley, but I still think Fraser’s comeback narrative and powerful performance will be enough to overcome the issues people have with The Whale as a whole.

  • Best Supporting Actress feels like Angela Bassett and Kerry Condon could easily win it, but it also feels like Jamie Lee Curtis has the momentum here.

  • Finally, while Everything Everywhere All at Once is the safe choice to win Best Picture, All Quiet on the Western Front could pull the upset. You have an Academy membership that has gone heavily international, and that combined with the film’s BAFTA success could get it over the top for Best Picture. We’ll find out tonight.

Best Picture

Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Should Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Director

Will Win: Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Should Win: Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Actor

Will Win: Brendan Fraser, The Whale

Should Win: Brendan Fraser, The Whale

Best Actress

Will Win: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Should Win: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Should Win: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Supporting Actress

Will Win: Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Should Win: Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Animated Feature

Will Win: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Should Win: Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

Cinematography

Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

Should Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

Costume Design

Will Win: Elvis

Should Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Documentary Feature

Will Win: Navalny

Documentary Short

Will Win: The Elephant Whisperers

Film Editing

Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Should Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

International Feature

Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

Makeup and Hairstyling

Will Win: The Whale

Should Win: The Batman

Original Score

Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

Should Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

Original Song

Will Win: “Naatu Naatu” from RRR

Should Win: “Naatu Naatu” from RRR

Production Design

Will Win: Babylon

Should Win: Babylon

Animated Short

Will Win: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse

Live Action Short

Will Win: Le Pupille

Sound

Will Win: Top Gun: Maverick

Should Win: Top Gun: Maverick

Visual Effects

Will Win: Avatar: The Way of Water

Should Win: Avatar: The Way of Water

Adapted Screenplay

Will Win: Women Talking

Should Win: Top Gun: Maverick

Original Screenplay

Will Win: The Banshees of Inisherin

Should Win: Tár